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2035年 2

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Electricity demand, GDP and employment: evidence from Italy

Cosimo MAGAZZINO

《能源前沿（英文）》 2014年 第8卷 第1期   页码 31-40 doi: 10.1007/s11708-014-0296-8

摘要： This paper applies time series methodologies to examine the causal relationship among electricity demand, real per capita GDP and total labor force for Italy from 1970 to 2009. After a brief introduction, a survey of the economic literature on this issue is reported, before discussing the data and introducing the econometric techniques used. The results of estimation indicate that one cointegrating relationship exists among these variables. This equilibrium relation implies that, in the long-run, GDP and labor force are correlated negatively, as well as GDP and electricity. Moreover, there is a bi-directional Granger causality flow between real per capita GDP and electricity demand; while labor force does not Granger-cause neither real per capita GDP nor electricity demand. This implies that electricity demand and economic growth are jointly determined at the same time for the Italian case. The forecast error variance decomposition shows that forecast errors in real per capita GDP are mainly caused by the uncertainty in GDP itself, while forecast errors in labor force are mainly resulted from the labor force itself, although aggregate income and electricity are important, too.

关键词： energy policies     electricity demand     GDP     labor force     stationarity     structural breaks     cointegration     causality     Italy    

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Employing electricity-consumption monitoring systems and integrative time-series analysis models: A case

Seiya MAKI, Shuichi ASHINA, Minoru FUJII, Tsuyoshi FUJITA, Norio YABE, Kenji UCHIDA, Gito GINTING, Rizaldi BOER, Remi CHANDRAN

《能源前沿（英文）》 2018年 第12卷 第3期   页码 426-439 doi: 10.1007/s11708-018-0560-4

摘要：

The Paris Agreement calls for maintaining a global temperature less than 2°C above the pre-industrial level and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase even further to 1.5°C. To realize this objective and promote a low-carbon society, and because energy production and use is the largest source of global greenhouse-gas (GHG) emissions, it is important to efficiently manage energy demand and supply systems. This, in turn, requires theoretical and practical research and innovation in smart energy monitoring technologies, the identification of appropriate methods for detailed time-series analysis, and the application of these technologies at urban and national scales. Further, because developing countries contribute increasing shares of domestic energy consumption, it is important to consider the application of such innovations in these areas. Motivated by the mandates set out in global agreements on climate change and low-carbon societies, this paper focuses on the development of a smart energy monitoring system (SEMS) and its deployment in households and public and commercial sectors in Bogor, Indonesia. An electricity demand prediction model is developed for each device using the Auto-Regression eXogenous model. The real-time SEMS data and time-series clustering to explore similarities in electricity consumption patterns between monitored units, such as residential, public, and commercial buildings, in Bogor is, then, used. These clusters are evaluated using peak demand and Ramadan term characteristics. The resulting energy-prediction models can be used for low-carbon planning.

关键词： electricity monitoring     electricity demand prediction     multiple-variable time-series modeling     time-series cluster analysis     Indonesia    

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Demand response based congestion management in a mix of pool and bilateral electricity market model

Ashwani KUMAR, Charan SEKHAR

《能源前沿（英文）》 2012年 第6卷 第2期   页码 164-178 doi: 10.1007/s11708-012-0187-9

摘要： The independent system operator (ISO) is a key element in the deregulated structure with one of the responsibilities of transmission congestion management (CM). The ISO opts market based solutions to manage congestion receiving bids from generation companies (GENCOs) as well as distribution companies (DISCOMs) to reschedule their generation and relocate demand. The nodal prices increases during the congestion hours and the demand response to nodal prices will be an effective tool for the control of congestion. In this paper, demand response-based CM has been proposed for a mix of pool and bilateral electricity market model. The linear bid curves have been considered for demand bids to respond to the congestion in the network. The bilateral demand has been obtained with minimum deviations in their preferred schedule. The impact of flexible alternating current transmission system (FACTS) devices viz static var compensator (SVC) and thyristor controlled series compensator (TCSC) has also been considered for demand management during congestion. Multi-line congestion cases have been considered to study the impact on demand response without and with FACTS devices. The proposed approach has been tested on the IEEE 24 bus test system.

关键词： bid function     congestion management (CM)     demand response     pool+bilateral electricity market     static var compensator (SVC)     thyristor controlled series compensator (TCSC)    

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Understanding the demand predictability of bike share systems: A station-level analysis

《工程管理前沿（英文）》   页码 551-565 doi: 10.1007/s42524-023-0279-8

摘要： Predicting demand for bike share systems (BSSs) is critical for both the management of an existing BSS and the planning for a new BSS. While researchers have mainly focused on improving prediction accuracy and analysing demand-influencing factors, there are few studies examining the inherent randomness of stations’ observed demands and to what degree the demands at individual stations are predictable. Using Divvy bike-share one-year data from Chicago, USA, we measured demand entropy and quantified the station-level predictability. Additionally, to verify that these predictability measures could represent the performance of prediction models, we implemented two commonly used demand prediction models to compare the empirical prediction accuracy with the calculated entropy and predictability. Furthermore, we explored how city- and system-specific temporally-constant features would impact entropy and predictability to inform estimating these measures when historical demand data are unavailable. Our results show that entropy of demands across stations is polarized as some stations exhibit high uncertainty (a low entropy of 0.65) and others have almost no check-out demand uncertainty (a high entropy of around 1.0). We also validated that the entropy and predictability are a priori model-free indicators for prediction error, given a sequence of bike usage demands. Lastly, we identified that key factors contributing to station-level entropy and predictability include per capita income, spatial eccentricity, and the number of parking lots near the station. Findings from this study provide more fundamental understanding of BSS demand prediction, which can help decision makers and system operators anticipate diverse station-level prediction errors from their prediction models both for existing stations and for new ones.

关键词： bike share systems     demand prediction     prediction errors     machine learning     entropy    

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我国主要农产品供需分析与预测

刘洋, 罗其友, 周振亚, 尤飞, 高明杰, 唐曲

《中国工程科学》 2018年 第20卷 第5期   页码 120-127 doi: 10.15302/J-SSCAE-2018.05.018

摘要：

粮食安全始终是关系国民经济发展、社会稳定和国家自立的全局性重大战略问题。弄清食物安全保障程度、科学测算未来国家食物需求量是制定保障食物安全政策的基础性工作。2015 年，我国水稻和小麦供需基本平衡，玉米供大于求，大豆严重依赖进口；棉油糖对外依存度较大，其中食用植物油自给率只有36.9%，棉花87.7%，食糖74.4%；畜禽产品供需基本平衡，奶类需要品种调剂。

关键词： 农产品供需     需求预测     食物安全    

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Water quality prediction of copper-molybdenum mining-beneficiation wastewater based on the PSO-SVR model

《环境科学与工程前沿（英文）》 2023年 第17卷 第8期 doi: 10.1007/s11783-023-1698-9

摘要：

● Data acquisition and pre-processing for wastewater treatment were summarized.

关键词： Chemical oxygen demand     Mining-beneficiation wastewater treatment     Particle swarm optimization     Support vector regression     Artificial neural network    

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Allocation of grassland, livestock and arable based on the spatial and temporal analysis for food demand

Huilong LIN, Ruichao LI, Yifan LIU, Jingrong ZHANG, Jizhou REN

《农业科学与工程前沿（英文）》 2017年 第4卷 第1期   页码 69-80 doi: 10.15302/J-FASE-2017140

摘要： To explore the distribution of food demand and the projected trend in future food demand in China, this paper analyzed the change in current (1998–2012) per-capita demand for grain, grain-consuming and herbivorous livestock products, and predicted the food demand in 2020. The results indicated that in 1998–2012, the national per-capita consumption of grain ration declined by about 36.66%, and the per-capita consumption of grain-consu-ming and herbivorous livestock products increased by about 48% and 34.09%, respectively. The grain-consu-ming livestock products have become the primary source of both calories and protein for consumers. The proportion of herbivorous livestock products in consumer diets has increased steadily and there has been huge potential in substituting beef and mutton for pork in this dynamic market. The demand for food in different provinces of China is highly variable, which is important for planning grassland agriculture development and ensuring food safety. The demand for grain, and grain-consuming and herbivorous livestock products will increase by about 3.3%, 20% and 14% respectively by 2020. Based on the food demand and trend in the development of grassland agriculture, the 31 provinces in China are divided into three priority groups for grassland agriculture development.

关键词： arable land equivalent unit (ALEU)     food equivalent unit (FEU)     food security     grassland agriculture     time trend prediction    

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基于智能体的联网级可再生能源接入模拟及需求响应研究 Artical

David P. Chassin,Sahand Behboodi,Curran Crawford,Ned Djilali

《工程（英文）》 2015年 第1卷 第4期   页码 422-435 doi: 10.15302/J-ENG-2015109

摘要：

本文收集并综合了基于智能体的联网级模型准稳态模拟的技术要求、实施和验证方法，特别关注了可再生发电的接入和可控负荷方面的问题。介绍了已接入可控负荷的建模方法，并将其作为联网规划研究的发电资源置于同一控制与经济建模架构中。本文利用系统参数检验模型的性能，这些参数为联网所用的标准参数，其规模接近西部电力协调委员会(WECC) 规定的规模，控制区域约为系统的1/100。检验结果被用于说明和验证所述的方法。

关键词： 联网研究     需求响应     负荷控制     可再生能源接入     基于智能体的模拟     电力市场    

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A hybrid fuel cell for water purification and simultaneously electricity generation

《环境科学与工程前沿（英文）》 2023年 第17卷 第1期 doi: 10.1007/s11783-023-1611-6

摘要：

● A novel hybrid fuel cell (F-HFC) was fabricated.

关键词： Flow-through field     Hybrid fuel cell     Polyoxometalates     Water purification     Electricity generation    

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Low-carbon technology calls for comprehensive electricity-market redesign

Yang YU

《工程管理前沿（英文）》 2019年 第6卷 第1期   页码 128-130 doi: 10.1007/s42524-019-0020-9

摘要：

The energy transition also calls for electricity- market redesign. Low-carbon technologies will fundamentally reshape the electricity sector. The electricity generation and demand will be significantly unpredictable and uncontrollable thus require for a more sophisticated system operation to guarantee the grid stability and reliability. The higher difficulty induced by the green-technology penetration expose the electricity-market to a higher market-failure risk. Thus, the future low-carbon electricity-market and associated regulation scheme require a comprehensive new design.

关键词： low-carbon technology     electricity-system operation     market design    

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Relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth of Guangdong Province in China

Lianhong LV, Hong LUO, Baoliu ZHANG

《能源前沿（英文）》 2012年 第6卷 第4期   页码 351-355 doi: 10.1007/s11708-012-0209-7

摘要： Guangdong is a province with the most electricity consumption (EC) and the fastest economic growth in China. However, there has long been a contradiction between electricity supply and demand in Guangdong and this trend may exist for a long time in the foreseeable future. Therefore, the research on the relationship between EC and economic growth of Guangdong is of very important practical significance to the formulation of relevant policy. In this paper, the econometrics method of granger causality test and co-integration test is used to analyze the relationship between EC and economic growth of Guangdong from 1978 to 2010. The results indicate that there is unidirectional causality between the economic growth and the EC, and the growth of gross domestic product (GDP) and gross industrial output value (GIOV) is the impetus to promote the growth of installedβcapacity (ICAP) and the EC. Therefore, the appropriate restraint of excessive growth of power industry will not necessarily slow down economic growth. There has been a long-term stable equilibrium relationship between the EC and the economic growth. When the GDP and GIOV grows 1 unit respectively, the EC of Guangdong province will increase 0.97 and 0.64 unit respectively. The long-term marginal utility of the EC is more than 1.

关键词： co-integration     granger causality     electricity consumption (EC)     economic growth    

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An approach to locational marginal price based zonal congestion management in deregulated electricity

Md SARWAR,Anwar Shahzad SIDDIQUI

《能源前沿（英文）》 2016年 第10卷 第2期   页码 240-248 doi: 10.1007/s11708-016-0404-z

摘要： Congestion of transmission line is a vital issue and its management pose a technical challenge in power system deregulation. Congestion occurs in deregulated electricity market when transmission capacity is not sufficient to simultaneously accommodate all constraints of power transmission through a line. Therefore, to manage congestion, a locational marginal price (LMP) based zonal congestion management approach in a deregulated electricity market has been proposed in this paper. As LMP is an economic indicator and its difference between two buses across a transmission line provides the measure of the degree of congestion, therefore, it is efficiently and reliably used in deregulated electricity market for congestion management. This paper utilizes the difference of LMP across a transmission line to categorize various congestion zones in the system. After the identification of congestion zones, distributed generation is optimally placed in most congestion sensitive zones using LMP difference in order to manage congestion. The performance of the proposed methodology has been tested on the IEEE 14-bus system and IEEE 57-bus system.

关键词： locational marginal price (LMP)     distributed generation     pool market     deregulated electricity market     congestion management    

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Decomposition and decoupling analysis of electricity consumption carbon emissions in China

《工程管理前沿（英文）》   页码 486-498 doi: 10.1007/s42524-022-0215-3

摘要： Electricity consumption is one of the major contributors to greenhouse gas emissions. In this study, we build a power consumption carbon emission measurement model based on the operating margin factor. We use the decomposition and decoupling technology of logarithmic mean Divisia index method to quantify six effects (emission intensity, power generation structure, consumption electricity intensity, economic scale, population structure, and population scale) and comprehensively reflect the degree of dependence of electricity consumption carbon emissions on China’s economic development and population changes. Moreover, we utilize the decoupling model to analyze the decoupling state between carbon emissions and economic growth and identify corresponding energy efficiency policies. The results of this study provide a new perspective to understand carbon emission reduction potentials in the electricity use of China.

关键词： electricity consumption carbon emission measurement     LMDI model     decoupling model     data driven    

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中国大陆可能的膳食消费水平与粮食需求量——基于中国台湾的历程判断

辛良杰

《中国工程科学》 2018年 第20卷 第5期   页码 135-141 doi: 10.15302/J-SSCAE-2018.05.020

摘要：

中国台湾居民的食物消费演变对中国大陆具有较好的借鉴价值。根据中国台湾的发展情况，中国大陆居民的膳食消费总量可能会在2026 年左右达到峰值状态，水果、肉类、蛋类、水产品、乳类、油脂等高附加值食品的消费量也相应达到峰值，人均膳食消费总量与粮食消费量可分别达到563 kg 与456 kg；到2035 年膳食消费结构达到基本稳定状态，人均膳食消费总量与粮食消费量可分别达到499 kg 与412 kg。由此可知，中国大陆居民的膳食消费还有较大的提升潜力，对中国有限的水土资源还将产生较长时间的持续压力。

关键词： 中国台湾     中国大陆     膳食消费     粮食需求量    

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Nodal, zonal, or uniform electricity pricing: how to deal with network congestion

Martin WEIBELZAHL

《能源前沿（英文）》 2017年 第11卷 第2期   页码 210-232 doi: 10.1007/s11708-017-0460-z

摘要： In this paper, the main contributions to congestion management and electricity pricing, i.e., nodal, zonal, and uniform electricity pricing, are surveyed. The key electricity market concepts are structured and a formal model framework is proposed for electricity transportation, production, and consumption in the context of limited transmission networks and competitive, welfare maximizing electricity markets. In addition, the main results of existing short-run and long-run congestion management studies are explicitly summarized. In particular, the important interconnection between short-run network management approaches and optimal long-run investments in both generation facilities and network lines are highlighted.

关键词： nodal pricing     zonal pricing     uniform pricing     competitive electricity markets     welfare maximization     redispatch     optimization models    

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标题 作者 时间 类型 操作

Electricity demand, GDP and employment: evidence from Italy

Cosimo MAGAZZINO

期刊论文

Employing electricity-consumption monitoring systems and integrative time-series analysis models: A case

Seiya MAKI, Shuichi ASHINA, Minoru FUJII, Tsuyoshi FUJITA, Norio YABE, Kenji UCHIDA, Gito GINTING, Rizaldi BOER, Remi CHANDRAN

期刊论文

Demand response based congestion management in a mix of pool and bilateral electricity market model

Ashwani KUMAR, Charan SEKHAR

期刊论文

Understanding the demand predictability of bike share systems: A station-level analysis

期刊论文

我国主要农产品供需分析与预测

刘洋, 罗其友, 周振亚, 尤飞, 高明杰, 唐曲

期刊论文

Water quality prediction of copper-molybdenum mining-beneficiation wastewater based on the PSO-SVR model

期刊论文

Allocation of grassland, livestock and arable based on the spatial and temporal analysis for food demand

Huilong LIN, Ruichao LI, Yifan LIU, Jingrong ZHANG, Jizhou REN

期刊论文

基于智能体的联网级可再生能源接入模拟及需求响应研究

David P. Chassin,Sahand Behboodi,Curran Crawford,Ned Djilali

期刊论文

A hybrid fuel cell for water purification and simultaneously electricity generation

期刊论文

Low-carbon technology calls for comprehensive electricity-market redesign

Yang YU

期刊论文

Relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth of Guangdong Province in China

Lianhong LV, Hong LUO, Baoliu ZHANG

期刊论文

An approach to locational marginal price based zonal congestion management in deregulated electricity

Md SARWAR,Anwar Shahzad SIDDIQUI

期刊论文

Decomposition and decoupling analysis of electricity consumption carbon emissions in China

期刊论文

中国大陆可能的膳食消费水平与粮食需求量——基于中国台湾的历程判断

辛良杰

期刊论文

Nodal, zonal, or uniform electricity pricing: how to deal with network congestion

Martin WEIBELZAHL

期刊论文